Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2021-11-11 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 2 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Win (62% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 37.8%

MIN: 62.2%

Expected Goals

VGK: 2.45

MIN: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 49%

VGK

L. Brossoit

MIN

C. Talbot

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Brossoit	26	24	2	92.3%	3.03	3	1.03
MIN	C. Talbot	35	32	3	91.4%	3.43	2	0.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • VGK at home vs MIN: 7-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-06	VGK 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-12-29	VGK 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-11-16	MIN 3 - 2 VGK	MIN	VGK
2025-05-01	MIN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-29	VGK 3 - 2 MIN	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	21	1	1.33
1	MIN	8	1	0.47
2	VGK	11	0	1.02
2	MIN	18	1	1.42
3	VGK	11	1	1.08
3	MIN	17	1	1.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 2 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 2.5 - 3.2