Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2021-11-12 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

Win Probability

BUF: 66.2%

EDM: 33.8%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.05

EDM: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 48%

BUF

D. Tokarski

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	D. Tokarski	35	33	2	94.3%	2.54	1	0.54
EDM	Stuart Skinner	23	20	3	87.0%	1.87	0	-1.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BUF at home vs EDM: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	EDM 3 - 4 BUF	BUF	EDM
2025-11-17	BUF 5 - 1 EDM	BUF	BUF
2025-03-10	BUF 3 - 2 EDM	BUF	EDM
2025-01-25	EDM 3 - 2 BUF	EDM	EDM
2024-03-21	EDM 8 - 3 BUF	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	8	0	0.52
1	EDM	11	0	0.36
2	BUF	13	0	1.00
2	EDM	16	1	1.22
3	BUF	6	0	0.35
3	EDM	16	0	0.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 2 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.0 - 2.9