Philadelphia Flyers at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2021-11-12 • PNC Arena

Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 51.2%

PHI: 48.8%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.84

PHI: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 50%

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	28	26	2	92.9%	3.12	4	1.12
PHI	C. Hart	40	39	1	97.5%	4.98	6	3.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • CAR at home vs PHI: 9-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-09	PHI 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	PHI
2026-05-07	PHI 1 - 4 CAR	CAR	PHI
2026-05-04	CAR 3 - 2 PHI	CAR	CAR
2026-05-02	CAR 3 - 0 PHI	CAR	CAR
2026-04-13	PHI 3 - 2 CAR	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	17	1	1.40
1	PHI	11	0	0.31
2	CAR	23	2	1.71
2	PHI	13	1	0.88
3	CAR	17	3	1.86
3	PHI	20	3	1.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.8 - 3.1