Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2021-11-13 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

BUF: 47.4%

TOR: 52.6%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.96

TOR: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 53%

BUF

A. Dell

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	A. Dell	26	21	5	80.8%	1.85	0	-3.15
TOR	Joseph Woll	27	23	4	85.2%	2.26	0	-1.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • BUF at home vs TOR: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	TOR
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	BUF	18	1.00
1	TOR	6	0.47
2	BUF	12	0.35
2	TOR	10	0.47
3	BUF	15	0.90
3	TOR	19	0.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3