New York Rangers at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2021-11-13 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 3 - 5 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

CBJ: 53.6%

NYR: 46.4%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 2.97

NYR: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	41	36	5	87.8%	4.25	3	-0.75
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	36	33	3	91.7%	2.88	0	-0.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CBJ at home vs NYR: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	CBJ 6 - 3 NYR	CBJ	CBJ
2026-03-02	NYR 4 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-11-15	CBJ 1 - 2 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-03-15	CBJ 0 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-03-09	NYR 3 - 7 CBJ	CBJ	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	14	0	0.95
1	NYR	9	0	0.62
2	CBJ	12	0	0.64
2	NYR	22	2	1.65
3	CBJ	25	0	1.29
3	NYR	20	1	1.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 3 - 5 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3