Philadelphia Flyers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2021-11-13 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

DAL: 69.0%

PHI: 31.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.83

PHI: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 50%

DAL

A. Khudobin

PHI

M. Jones

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	A. Khudobin	34	32	2	94.1%	2.58	0	0.58
PHI	M. Jones	31	26	5	83.9%	3.63	4	-1.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 90% • DAL at home vs PHI: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-29	PHI 2 - 1 DAL	PHI	PHI
2025-11-15	DAL 5 - 1 PHI	DAL	DAL
2025-03-22	DAL 3 - 2 PHI	DAL	PHI
2025-01-09	PHI 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-01-18	PHI 5 - 1 DAL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	10	0	0.57
1	PHI	27	0	1.49
2	DAL	20	1	1.21
2	PHI	10	0	0.62
3	DAL	17	3	1.84
3	PHI	13	0	0.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 5 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 2.8 - 3.1