Calgary Flames at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2021-11-14 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 0 - 4 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

OTT: 44.7%

CGY: 55.3%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.89

CGY: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	33	29	4	87.9%	3.03	1	-0.97
CGY	Dan Vladar	27	27	0	100.0%	1.97	0	1.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • OTT at home vs CGY: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	CGY 1 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-30	OTT 4 - 3 CGY	OTT	OTT
2024-12-19	CGY 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-11-25	OTT 4 - 3 CGY	OTT	OTT
2024-01-09	CGY 6 - 3 OTT	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	14	0	0.53
1	CGY	12	0	0.58
2	OTT	9	0	0.36
2	CGY	21	0	1.69
3	OTT	19	0	1.09
3	CGY	11	1	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 0 - 4 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4