Montreal Canadiens at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2021-11-16 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 47.4%

MTL: 52.6%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.29

MTL: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

MTL

Cayden Primeau - 8-9-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	33	31	2	93.9%	2.57	0	0.57
MTL	Cayden Primeau	34	31	3	91.2%	3.27	0	0.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • NYR at home vs MTL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NYR 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-12-13	NYR 5 - 4 MTL	NYR	NYR
2025-10-18	MTL 3 - 4 NYR	NYR	MTL
2025-01-19	MTL 5 - 4 NYR	MTL	MTL
2024-11-30	NYR 4 - 3 MTL	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	NYR	22	1.65
1	MTL	15	0.64
2	NYR	16	0.86
2	MTL	16	1.36
3	NYR	14	0.77
3	MTL	17	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9