Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2021-11-16 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 1 Calgary Flames (OT)

Win Probability

PHI: 56.3%

CGY: 43.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.61

CGY: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

PHI

C. Hart

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	34	33	1	97.1%	3.45	0	2.45
CGY	J. Markstrom	43	41	2	95.3%	4.16	1	2.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs CGY: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	CGY 5 - 1 PHI	CGY	CGY
2025-11-02	PHI 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	PHI
2025-03-04	PHI 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	PHI
2024-10-12	CGY 6 - 3 PHI	CGY	CGY
2024-01-06	PHI 3 - 2 CGY	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	17	0	1.04
1	CGY	13	0	1.08
2	PHI	21	1	1.87
2	CGY	21	0	2.02
3	PHI	17	0	1.10
3	CGY	6	0	0.34
4	PHI	2	0	0.16
4	CGY	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 1 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.6 - 2.8