Detroit Red Wings at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions
2021-11-16 • American Airlines Center
Dallas Stars 5 - 2 Detroit Red Wings
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DAL: 65.6%
DET: 34.4%
Expected Goals
DAL: 3.06
DET: 2.95
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 70%
Over 6.5: 53%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA
DET
A. Nedeljkovic
| Stat | DAL | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | — |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.57 | — |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Jake Oettinger | 30 | 28 | 2 | 93.3% | 2.50 | 0 | 0.50 |
| DET | A. Nedeljkovic | 30 | 25 | 5 | 83.3% | 2.85 | 1 | -2.15 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 90% • DAL at home vs DET: 5-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | DAL 3 - 2 DET | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-12-23 | DET 4 - 3 DAL | DET | DET |
| 2025-04-14 | DET 6 - 4 DAL | DET | DET |
| 2025-01-19 | DAL 4 - 1 DET | DAL | DAL |
| 2024-01-23 | DET 4 - 5 DAL | DAL | DAL |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 16 | 0 | 0.89 |
| 1 | DET | 8 | 0 | 0.42 |
| 2 | DAL | 16 | 0 | 0.93 |
| 2 | DET | 16 | 0 | 0.92 |
| 3 | DAL | 9 | 1 | 1.03 |
| 3 | DET | 21 | 0 | 1.16 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 65.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Dallas Stars 5 - 2 Detroit Red Wings
Expected: 3.1 - 3.0
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