Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2021-11-18 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 0 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

MTL: 45.7%

PIT: 54.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.77

PIT: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 52%

MTL

Cayden Primeau - 8-9-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.99 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Cayden Primeau	43	37	6	86.0%	3.00	1	-3.00
PIT	Tristan Jarry	24	24	0	100.0%	1.42	0	1.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MTL at home vs PIT: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	PIT 4 - 3 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-20	MTL 4 - 0 PIT	MTL	MTL
2025-12-11	PIT 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	PIT
2024-12-12	MTL 2 - 9 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-11-02	PIT 3 - 1 MTL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	9	0	0.35
1	PIT	21	0	0.91
2	MTL	9	0	0.38
2	PIT	18	1	1.48
3	MTL	13	0	0.70
3	PIT	13	0	0.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 0 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2