Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2021-11-18 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning (SO)

Win Probability

PHI: 49.7%

TBL: 50.3%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.98

TBL: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

PHI

C. Hart

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	34	29	5	85.3%	4.35	2	-0.65
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	32	29	3	90.6%	2.32	0	-0.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PHI at home vs TBL: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	PHI 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-01-10	PHI 2 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-24	TBL 3 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-17	TBL 2 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-13	PHI 4 - 3 TBL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	7	0	0.47
1	TBL	19	0	0.85
2	PHI	10	0	0.49
2	TBL	17	0	1.59
3	PHI	17	0	0.73
3	TBL	7	0	0.28
4	PHI	7	0	0.52
4	TBL	4	0	0.30
5	PHI	2	0	0.10
5	TBL	2	2	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0