Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2021-11-20 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 0 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 51.9%

PIT: 48.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.09

PIT: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 54%

TOR

J. Campbell

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	31	29	2	93.5%	1.89	0	-0.11
PIT	Tristan Jarry	26	26	0	100.0%	2.95	0	2.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs PIT: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-23	TOR 6 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-11-29	PIT 2 - 7 TOR	TOR	PIT
2025-11-03	TOR 4 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-03-02	PIT 5 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-07	PIT 5 - 2 TOR	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	TOR	12	0.61
1	PIT	12	0.80
2	TOR	18	1.10
2	PIT	11	0.56
3	TOR	14	1.24
3	PIT	14	0.53

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 0 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2