Washington Capitals at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2021-11-20 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 0 - 4 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 51.6%

WSH: 48.4%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.01

WSH: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

SJS

A. Hill

WSH

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	A. Hill	21	17	4	81.0%	2.27	1	-1.73
WSH	I. Samsonov	22	22	0	100.0%	2.90	0	2.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • SJS at home vs WSH: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	WSH 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	WSH
2025-12-03	SJS 1 - 7 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-03-15	SJS 1 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-03	WSH 1 - 2 SJS	SJS	WSH
2023-11-27	SJS 2 - 1 WSH	SJS	SJS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	12	0	0.98
1	WSH	10	0	0.59
2	SJS	20	0	1.35
2	WSH	9	0	0.51
3	SJS	9	0	0.56
3	WSH	11	1	1.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 0 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.0 - 3.0