Calgary Flames at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2021-11-21 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 0 - 4 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 56.7%

CGY: 43.3%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.79

CGY: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	32	28	4	87.5%	3.19	2	-0.81
CGY	Dan Vladar	28	28	0	100.0%	2.14	0	2.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs CGY: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-08	BOS 4 - 1 CGY	BOS	BOS
2025-12-29	CGY 2 - 1 BOS	CGY	CGY
2024-12-17	CGY 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	BOS
2024-11-07	BOS 4 - 3 CGY	BOS	BOS
2024-02-22	CGY 3 - 2 BOS	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	10	0	0.60
1	CGY	13	0	0.60
2	BOS	18	0	0.98
2	CGY	17	0	1.00
3	BOS	14	0	0.56
3	CGY	16	2	1.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 0 - 4 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2