Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2021-11-21 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 5 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 44.4%

BUF: 55.6%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.94

BUF: 3.47

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

NYR

A. Georgiev

BUF

A. Dell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	A. Georgiev	22	18	4	81.8%	1.31	0	-2.69
BUF	A. Dell	36	31	5	86.1%	4.43	3	-0.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • NYR at home vs BUF: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	NYR 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-01-08	NYR 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-09	BUF 0 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-02-22	BUF 8 - 2 NYR	BUF	NYR
2024-12-11	BUF 2 - 3 NYR	NYR	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	12	0	0.82
1	BUF	12	0	0.71
2	NYR	18	2	2.24
2	BUF	14	0	0.43
3	NYR	15	1	1.37
3	BUF	7	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 5 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 2.9 - 3.5