Chicago Blackhawks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2021-11-23 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 5 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

CGY: 63.8%

CHI: 36.2%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.70

CHI: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

CGY

J. Markstrom

CHI

M. Fleury

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	21	19	2	90.5%	1.78	0	-0.22
CHI	M. Fleury	39	34	5	87.2%	4.31	3	-0.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • CGY at home vs CHI: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	CHI 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	CGY
2025-11-18	CHI 5 - 2 CGY	CHI	CGY
2025-11-07	CGY 0 - 4 CHI	CHI	CGY
2025-01-13	CHI 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2024-12-21	CGY 6 - 4 CHI	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	15	0	0.93
1	CHI	9	0	0.50
2	CGY	18	1	1.21
2	CHI	11	0	0.78
3	CGY	19	2	2.17
3	CHI	8	0	0.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 5 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.7 - 2.9