Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2021-11-24 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 5 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 50.1%

BOS: 49.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.82

BOS: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 43%

BUF

A. Dell

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	A. Dell	47	42	5	89.4%	3.35	1	-1.65
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	25	24	1	96.0%	1.78	0	0.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BUF at home vs BOS: 4-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	BOS 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-28	BUF 1 - 2 BOS	BOS	BUF
2026-04-26	BOS 1 - 6 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-23	BOS 1 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-04-21	BUF 2 - 4 BOS	BOS	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	12	0	0.33
1	BOS	26	1	1.18
2	BUF	18	0	1.12
2	BOS	10	0	0.77
3	BUF	7	0	0.33
3	BOS	25	0	1.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 1 - 5 Boston Bruins

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2