Vancouver Canucks at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2021-11-24 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 1 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 49.9%

VAN: 50.1%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.07

VAN: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	37	36	1	97.3%	2.45	2	1.45
VAN	Thatcher Demko	37	33	4	89.2%	3.81	2	-0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs VAN: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	VAN 2 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-10-21	PIT 5 - 1 VAN	PIT	PIT
2024-11-27	PIT 5 - 4 VAN	PIT	PIT
2024-10-26	VAN 4 - 3 PIT	VAN	VAN
2024-02-27	VAN 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	19	1	1.40
1	VAN	9	1	0.60
2	PIT	17	0	1.29
2	VAN	19	1	1.12
3	PIT	9	1	1.12
3	VAN	13	0	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 1 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1