Toronto Maple Leafs at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2021-11-24 • STAPLES Center

Los Angeles Kings 2 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

LAK: 53.7%

TOR: 46.3%

Expected Goals

LAK: 2.88

TOR: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 52%

LAK

J. Quick

TOR

J. Campbell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	J. Quick	38	32	6	84.2%	4.27	2	-1.73
TOR	J. Campbell	32	30	2	93.8%	2.86	0	0.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • LAK at home vs TOR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	LAK 7 - 6 TOR	LAK	LAK
2025-11-13	TOR 3 - 4 LAK	LAK	TOR
2025-03-29	LAK 1 - 3 TOR	TOR	LAK
2024-10-16	TOR 6 - 2 LAK	TOR	TOR
2024-01-02	LAK 0 - 3 TOR	TOR	LAK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	18	0	1.11
1	TOR	18	0	1.44
2	LAK	17	0	1.10
2	TOR	19	0	1.66
3	LAK	14	0	0.64
3	TOR	15	2	1.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Los Angeles Kings 2 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3