Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2021-11-26 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 0 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

NYI: 46.3%

PIT: 53.7%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.95

PIT: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 53%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	30	29	1	96.7%	3.29	0	2.29
PIT	Tristan Jarry	25	25	0	100.0%	1.85	1	1.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • NYI at home vs PIT: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	NYI 3 - 8 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-02-03	NYI 5 - 4 PIT	NYI	PIT
2025-10-09	PIT 4 - 3 NYI	PIT	PIT
2025-03-18	PIT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	PIT
2024-12-29	PIT 3 - 2 NYI	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	9	1	0.61
1	PIT	14	0	0.92
2	NYI	9	0	0.32
2	PIT	21	0	1.57
3	NYI	15	0	0.91
3	PIT	10	0	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 0 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1