Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2021-11-26 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 3 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 40.0%

FLA: 60.0%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.82

FLA: 3.46

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

WSH

I. Samsonov

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	I. Samsonov	22	19	3	86.4%	2.38	1	-0.62
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	29	25	4	86.2%	2.57	2	-1.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 76% • WSH at home vs FLA: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WSH 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	WSH
2025-12-29	FLA 5 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-11-13	FLA 6 - 3 WSH	FLA	FLA
2025-03-22	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH
2025-02-04	WSH 6 - 3 FLA	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	18	0	0.94
1	FLA	15	1	0.95
2	WSH	13	1	0.96
2	FLA	9	0	0.61
3	WSH	8	1	0.67
3	FLA	14	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 3 Florida Panthers

Expected: 2.8 - 3.5