Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2021-11-26 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 41.6%

COL: 58.4%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.60

COL: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

COL

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	37	36	1	97.3%	2.99	1	1.99
COL	D. Kuemper	22	19	3	86.4%	2.94	1	-0.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • DAL at home vs COL: 7-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	23	0	1.58
1	COL	9	0	0.49
2	DAL	15	1	1.23
2	COL	14	0	0.66
3	DAL	2	0	0.13
3	COL	27	1	1.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.6 - 3.4