Toronto Maple Leafs at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2021-11-26 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 1 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

SJS: 38.9%

TOR: 61.1%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.52

TOR: 3.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

SJS

J. Reimer

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	J. Reimer	33	29	4	87.9%	3.00	5	-1.00
TOR	Joseph Woll	35	34	1	97.1%	2.58	0	1.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • SJS at home vs TOR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	SJS 4 - 1 TOR	SJS	SJS
2025-12-11	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR
2025-03-27	SJS 6 - 5 TOR	SJS	SJS
2025-03-03	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR
2024-01-09	TOR 7 - 1 SJS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	12	0	0.84
1	TOR	13	1	0.71
2	SJS	13	0	0.77
2	TOR	16	3	1.60
3	SJS	20	0	0.97
3	TOR	13	1	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 1 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.5 - 3.8