Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2021-11-27 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 2 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

Win Probability

DET: 67.2%

BUF: 32.8%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.75

BUF: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

BUF

D. Tokarski

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	28	26	2	92.9%	1.52	0	-0.48
BUF	D. Tokarski	41	38	3	92.7%	4.13	2	1.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • DET at home vs BUF: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-27	BUF 2 - 5 DET	DET	BUF
2025-11-15	DET 4 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DET	BUF	BUF
2025-03-12	DET 7 - 3 BUF	DET	DET
2024-12-09	BUF 5 - 6 DET	DET	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	12	0	0.87
1	BUF	7	0	0.39
2	DET	22	2	1.97
2	BUF	15	0	0.81
3	DET	16	0	1.14
3	BUF	10	0	0.32
4	DET	1	0	0.15
4	BUF	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.8 - 2.9