Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2021-11-27 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 6 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 61.5%

MTL: 38.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.43

MTL: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 43%

PIT

C. DeSmith

MTL

J. Allen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	C. DeSmith	34	28	6	82.4%	5.52	5	-0.48
MTL	J. Allen	50	47	3	94.0%	4.83	2	1.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs MTL: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	PIT 4 - 3 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-20	MTL 4 - 0 PIT	MTL	MTL
2025-12-11	PIT 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	PIT
2024-12-12	MTL 2 - 9 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-11-02	PIT 3 - 1 MTL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	14	1	1.36
1	MTL	12	0	0.63
2	PIT	21	1	1.57
2	MTL	18	0	1.10
3	PIT	26	0	1.90
3	MTL	14	5	3.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 6 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7