Winnipeg Jets at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2021-11-27 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (72% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 71.9%

WPG: 28.1%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.76

WPG: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 44%

CGY

J. Markstrom

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	28	24	4	85.7%	2.70	1	-1.30
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	36	34	2	94.4%	3.16	0	1.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • CGY at home vs WPG: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-15	CGY 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	CGY
2025-10-24	WPG 5 - 3 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-10-20	CGY 1 - 2 WPG	WPG	WPG
2025-01-26	WPG 5 - 2 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-01-18	WPG 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	16	0	1.33
1	WPG	18	0	1.17
2	CGY	13	0	0.70
2	WPG	8	0	0.61
3	CGY	18	0	1.13
3	WPG	9	1	0.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 71.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 2.8 - 2.7