Dallas Stars at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2021-11-27 • Gila River Arena

Arizona Coyotes 2 - 3 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

ARI: 57.1%

DAL: 42.9%

Expected Goals

ARI: 2.61

DAL: 3.50

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

ARI

S. Wedgewood

DAL

B. Holtby

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	S. Wedgewood	29	26	3	89.7%	2.46	2	-0.54
DAL	B. Holtby	27	25	2	92.6%	1.82	1	-0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • ARI at home vs DAL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-03-24	ARI 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-03-20	DAL 5 - 2 ARI	DAL	DAL
2023-11-14	DAL 4 - 3 ARI	DAL	DAL
2023-03-31	ARI 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	ARI
2023-03-01	DAL 4 - 2 ARI	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	11	0	0.47
1	DAL	16	2	1.43
2	ARI	15	1	0.99
2	DAL	17	0	0.81
3	ARI	10	0	0.37
3	DAL	6	0	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 2 - 3 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.6 - 3.5