Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2021-11-28 • PNC Arena

Carolina Hurricanes 2 - 4 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 53.3%

WSH: 46.7%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.36

WSH: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

WSH

I. Samsonov

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	25	21	4	84.0%	4.03	3	0.03
WSH	I. Samsonov	32	30	2	93.8%	3.36	3	1.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 74% • CAR at home vs WSH: 7-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	WSH 4 - 3 CAR	WSH	CAR
2025-12-11	WSH 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-11	CAR 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	CAR
2025-05-15	WSH 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-05-12	CAR 5 - 2 WSH	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	17	0	0.98
1	WSH	10	0	0.68
2	CAR	12	0	0.44
2	WSH	17	0	1.11
3	CAR	22	3	1.94
3	WSH	11	3	2.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 2 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0