Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2021-11-28 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

MIN: 50.5%

TBL: 49.5%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.15

TBL: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 43%

MIN

C. Talbot

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	C. Talbot	30	28	2	93.3%	1.81	0	-0.19
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	37	33	4	89.2%	5.47	6	1.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • MIN at home vs TBL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	TBL 6 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL
2026-03-03	MIN 5 - 1 TBL	MIN	TBL
2024-11-01	MIN 5 - 3 TBL	MIN	TBL
2024-10-24	TBL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	MIN
2024-01-18	TBL 7 - 3 MIN	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	15	0	0.71
1	TBL	18	0	0.84
2	MIN	20	1	1.56
2	TBL	12	0	0.48
3	MIN	15	5	3.19
3	TBL	10	0	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 4 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0