Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2021-11-28 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 1 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

ANA: 57.1%

TOR: 42.9%

Expected Goals

ANA: 3.22

TOR: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 70%

Over 6.5: 54%

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

TOR

J. Campbell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	John Gibson	31	26	5	83.9%	3.35	1	-1.65
TOR	J. Campbell	40	39	1	97.5%	2.76	0	1.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • ANA at home vs TOR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	ANA 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	ANA
2026-03-12	TOR 6 - 4 ANA	TOR	TOR
2025-03-30	ANA 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	ANA
2024-12-12	TOR 3 - 2 ANA	TOR	TOR
2024-02-17	TOR 9 - 2 ANA	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	17	0	0.95
1	TOR	13	0	0.41
2	ANA	11	0	0.59
2	TOR	15	0	0.98
3	ANA	21	0	1.22
3	TOR	17	1	1.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 1 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8