Pittsburgh Penguins at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2021-11-29 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins (SO)

Win Probability

CGY: 65.7%

PIT: 34.3%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.54

PIT: 2.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

CGY

J. Markstrom

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	27	25	2	92.6%	2.79	1	0.79
PIT	Tristan Jarry	39	36	3	92.3%	5.69	2	2.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • CGY at home vs PIT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	CGY 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-01-10	PIT 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	PIT
2024-11-30	PIT 6 - 2 CGY	PIT	PIT
2024-10-22	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	CGY
2024-03-02	CGY 4 - 3 PIT	CGY	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	15	0	1.46
1	PIT	10	0	0.53
2	CGY	17	0	1.15
2	PIT	9	0	0.73
3	CGY	15	0	0.94
3	PIT	7	0	0.18
4	CGY	4	0	0.41
4	PIT	1	0	0.06
5	CGY	7	2	1.74
5	PIT	7	1	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.5 - 2.6