New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-01-18 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 4 New York Islanders (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 60.2%

NYI: 39.8%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.22

NYI: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 54%

PHI

C. Hart

NYI

Semyon Varlamov - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	38	34	4	89.5%	3.24	3	-0.76
NYI	Semyon Varlamov	38	35	3	92.1%	3.37	3	0.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • PHI at home vs NYI: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-03	NYI 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2026-01-26	PHI 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	PHI
2025-11-28	NYI 3 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2025-10-25	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI
2025-04-12	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	15	1	0.94
1	NYI	13	1	0.75
2	PHI	20	1	1.26
2	NYI	9	0	0.43
3	PHI	8	1	0.56
3	NYI	9	1	0.53
4	PHI	2	0	0.10
4	NYI	6	0	0.47
5	PHI	9	0	0.51
5	NYI	9	1	1.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8