Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2021-12-01 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 8 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 49.2%

COL: 50.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.76

COL: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

TOR

J. Campbell

COL

J. Johansson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	31	28	3	90.3%	2.68	0	-0.32
COL	J. Johansson	41	33	8	80.5%	3.49	1	-4.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs COL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	TOR 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-01-12	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	COL
2025-03-19	TOR 2 - 1 COL	TOR	TOR
2025-03-08	COL 7 - 4 TOR	COL	COL
2024-02-24	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	25	0	1.90
1	COL	15	0	0.54
2	TOR	12	1	0.61
2	COL	18	0	1.59
3	TOR	17	0	0.98
3	COL	12	0	0.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 8 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3