Vancouver Canucks at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2021-12-01 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 6 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 50.9%

VAN: 49.1%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.19

VAN: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 52%

OTT

F. Gustavsson

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	F. Gustavsson	35	29	6	82.9%	4.04	3	-1.96
VAN	Thatcher Demko	21	19	2	90.5%	2.28	1	0.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • OTT at home vs VAN: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	VAN 0 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-01-13	OTT 2 - 1 VAN	OTT	OTT
2024-12-21	VAN 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-11-23	OTT 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	OTT
2024-01-02	VAN 6 - 3 OTT	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	13	1	1.22
1	VAN	19	1	1.49
2	OTT	10	0	0.81
2	VAN	14	0	0.96
3	OTT	7	0	0.26
3	VAN	17	2	1.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 6 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2