Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2021-12-01 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 48.7%

PHI: 51.3%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.01

PHI: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	34	33	1	97.1%	3.09	1	2.09
PHI	C. Hart	28	24	4	85.7%	2.39	3	-1.61

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NYR at home vs PHI: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	PHI 2 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2026-02-26	NYR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	NYR
2026-01-17	PHI 3 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2025-12-20	NYR 5 - 4 PHI	NYR	NYR
2025-04-09	NYR 5 - 8 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	18	0	1.06
1	PHI	17	0	0.75
2	NYR	8	1	0.47
2	PHI	21	1	1.50
3	NYR	8	2	0.86
3	PHI	12	0	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 4 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2