Pittsburgh Penguins at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2021-12-01 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 40.2%

PIT: 59.8%

Expected Goals

EDM: 2.58

PIT: 3.62

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 53%

EDM

M. Koskinen

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	M. Koskinen	34	32	2	94.1%	3.13	0	1.13
PIT	Tristan Jarry	22	17	5	77.3%	2.69	1	-2.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • EDM at home vs PIT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	EDM 2 - 6 PIT	PIT	EDM
2025-12-16	PIT 4 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-01-09	PIT 5 - 3 EDM	PIT	EDM
2024-10-25	EDM 4 - 0 PIT	EDM	EDM
2024-03-10	PIT 0 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	7	0	0.52
1	PIT	12	0	0.85
2	EDM	10	0	0.54
2	PIT	25	0	1.83
3	EDM	11	1	1.63
3	PIT	11	0	0.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 5 - 2 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.6 - 3.6