Colorado Avalanche at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2021-12-02 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (70% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 70.4%

COL: 29.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.10

COL: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

MTL

J. Allen

COL

J. Johansson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	34	30	4	88.2%	3.99	2	-0.01
COL	J. Johansson	20	19	1	95.0%	1.15	0	0.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MTL at home vs COL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	MTL 7 - 3 COL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-29	COL 7 - 2 MTL	COL	COL
2025-03-22	MTL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-01-04	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL
2024-03-26	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	7	0	0.48
1	COL	18	0	1.05
2	MTL	12	0	0.44
2	COL	14	0	0.49
3	MTL	8	0	0.22
3	COL	18	2	2.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 70.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 1 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0