New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2021-12-04 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 3 New York Islanders (OT)

Win Probability

DET: 57.3%

NYI: 42.7%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.97

NYI: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 69%

Over 6.5: 53%

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	23	20	3	87.0%	2.38	1	-0.62
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	30	26	4	86.7%	2.62	0	-1.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • DET at home vs NYI: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	DET 3 - 2 NYI	DET	DET
2025-11-20	DET 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	DET
2025-10-23	NYI 7 - 2 DET	NYI	NYI
2024-11-25	NYI 2 - 4 DET	DET	NYI
2024-11-21	DET 2 - 1 NYI	DET	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	16	0	0.97
1	NYI	5	0	0.36
2	DET	6	0	0.38
2	NYI	18	1	1.39
3	DET	11	0	0.47
3	NYI	9	0	0.40
4	DET	7	0	0.80
4	NYI	2	0	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.0 - 2.8