Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2021-12-04 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 45.0%

TOR: 55.0%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.00

TOR: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 53%

MIN

C. Talbot

TOR

J. Campbell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	C. Talbot	44	40	4	90.9%	4.64	3	0.64
TOR	J. Campbell	43	38	5	88.4%	5.12	3	0.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MIN at home vs TOR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	MIN 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	MIN
2026-01-19	TOR 3 - 6 MIN	MIN	MIN
2025-01-29	TOR 1 - 3 MIN	MIN	TOR
2024-11-03	MIN 2 - 1 TOR	MIN	MIN
2023-11-19	MIN 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	13	0	0.69
1	TOR	9	1	0.74
2	MIN	7	1	0.40
2	TOR	24	1	1.88
3	MIN	27	0	1.92
3	TOR	13	0	0.54
4	MIN	3	0	0.32
4	TOR	5	0	0.51
5	MIN	3	2	1.78
5	TOR	3	1	0.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 4 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1