Pittsburgh Penguins at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2021-12-04 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 64.8%

PIT: 35.2%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.28

PIT: 2.61

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 50%

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	44	40	4	90.9%	4.12	1	0.12
PIT	Tristan Jarry	23	22	1	95.7%	2.15	1	1.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VAN at home vs PIT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	VAN 2 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-10-21	PIT 5 - 1 VAN	PIT	PIT
2024-11-27	PIT 5 - 4 VAN	PIT	PIT
2024-10-26	VAN 4 - 3 PIT	VAN	VAN
2024-02-27	VAN 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	11	0	0.23
1	PIT	17	0	1.13
2	VAN	9	1	0.83
2	PIT	28	0	2.03
3	VAN	15	0	1.08
3	PIT	11	1	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 2.6