San Jose Sharks at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2021-12-05 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 6 - 4 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

CBJ: 46.9%

SJS: 53.1%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.43

SJS: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

SJS

A. Hill

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	34	30	4	88.2%	2.61	0	-1.39
SJS	A. Hill	30	24	6	80.0%	2.91	2	-3.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CBJ at home vs SJS: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	CBJ 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	CBJ
2026-01-06	SJS 5 - 2 CBJ	SJS	SJS
2025-01-16	CBJ 4 - 1 SJS	CBJ	CBJ
2024-11-05	SJS 2 - 1 CBJ	SJS	CBJ
2024-03-16	CBJ 4 - 2 SJS	CBJ	CBJ

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	14	0	0.66
1	SJS	24	0	1.17
2	CBJ	12	0	0.69
2	SJS	15	0	0.97
3	CBJ	14	2	1.56
3	SJS	9	0	0.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 6 - 4 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9