Arizona Coyotes at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2021-12-06 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 1 Arizona Coyotes

Win Probability

DAL: 58.5%

ARI: 41.5%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.21

ARI: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

DAL

B. Holtby

ARI

S. Wedgewood

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	B. Holtby	19	18	1	94.7%	1.39	0	0.39
ARI	S. Wedgewood	27	23	4	85.2%	2.86	3	-1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • DAL at home vs ARI: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-03-24	ARI 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-03-20	DAL 5 - 2 ARI	DAL	DAL
2023-11-14	DAL 4 - 3 ARI	DAL	DAL
2023-03-31	ARI 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	ARI
2023-03-01	DAL 4 - 2 ARI	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	9	0	0.41
1	ARI	11	0	0.50
2	DAL	10	0	0.49
2	ARI	6	0	0.48
3	DAL	15	3	1.95
3	ARI	7	0	0.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 1 Arizona Coyotes

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8