Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2021-12-07 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

Win Probability

TOR: 60.8%

CBJ: 39.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.72

CBJ: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

TOR

J. Campbell

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	J. Campbell	32	28	4	87.5%	3.45	2	-0.55
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	40	35	5	87.5%	3.63	1	-1.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs CBJ: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	CBJ 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	CBJ
2025-11-20	TOR 2 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-10-29	CBJ 6 - 3 TOR	CBJ	CBJ
2025-04-05	TOR 5 - 0 CBJ	TOR	TOR
2025-01-22	TOR 1 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	22	0	1.33
1	CBJ	18	1	1.08
2	TOR	16	0	1.16
2	CBJ	18	1	1.18
3	TOR	12	1	1.14
3	CBJ	17	0	1.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.7 - 3.0