New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2021-12-07 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 5 New York Islanders

Win Probability

OTT: 48.1%

NYI: 51.9%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.88

NYI: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 53%

OTT

F. Gustavsson

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	F. Gustavsson	27	22	5	81.5%	3.15	1	-1.85
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	33	30	3	90.9%	2.90	0	-0.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • OTT at home vs NYI: 2-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	NYI 0 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-03-19	OTT 3 - 2 NYI	OTT	OTT
2025-10-18	OTT 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	OTT
2025-01-14	NYI 0 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-12-08	OTT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	12	0	0.73
1	NYI	6	0	0.24
2	OTT	24	0	1.46
2	NYI	17	0	1.35
3	OTT	16	0	0.71
3	NYI	20	1	1.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 3 - 5 New York Islanders

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0