Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2021-12-10 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 7 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

COL: 70.4%

DET: 29.6%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.79

DET: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

COL

D. Kuemper

DET

T. Greiss

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	40	37	3	92.5%	3.16	1	0.16
DET	T. Greiss	47	40	7	85.1%	5.99	5	-1.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • COL at home vs DET: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	COL 0 - 2 DET	DET	COL
2026-01-31	DET 0 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-03-25	COL 5 - 2 DET	COL	COL
2024-12-07	DET 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2024-03-06	COL 7 - 2 DET	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	20	0	1.52
1	DET	16	0	0.84
2	COL	17	1	1.09
2	DET	18	0	0.88
3	COL	25	4	3.38
3	DET	16	1	1.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 7 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.8 - 2.9