Philadelphia Flyers at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2021-12-11 • Gila River Arena

Arizona Coyotes 3 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

ARI: 55.9%

PHI: 44.1%

Expected Goals

ARI: 2.94

PHI: 2.67

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

PHI

M. Jones

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	K. Vejmelka	34	29	5	85.3%	2.95	1	-2.05
PHI	M. Jones	32	29	3	90.6%	2.17	0	-0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • ARI at home vs PHI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-02-12	PHI 5 - 3 ARI	PHI	PHI
2023-12-07	ARI 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	PHI
2023-01-05	PHI 6 - 2 ARI	PHI	PHI
2022-12-11	ARI 5 - 4 PHI	ARI	PHI
2021-12-11	ARI 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	ARI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	12	0	0.59
1	PHI	15	0	0.99
2	ARI	21	0	1.12
2	PHI	16	1	1.45
3	ARI	10	0	0.46
3	PHI	11	0	0.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 3 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 2.9 - 2.7