Florida Panthers at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2021-12-12 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 47.1%

FLA: 52.9%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.18

FLA: 2.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 43%

COL

D. Kuemper

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	D. Kuemper	31	29	2	93.5%	2.36	1	0.36
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	26	23	3	88.5%	2.26	2	-0.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • COL at home vs FLA: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-04	FLA 2 - 1 COL	FLA	FLA
2025-12-11	COL 6 - 2 FLA	COL	COL
2025-01-06	COL 3 - 1 FLA	COL	FLA
2024-11-23	FLA 4 - 7 COL	COL	COL
2024-02-10	FLA 4 - 0 COL	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	12	0	0.65
1	FLA	11	1	0.85
2	COL	12	1	0.86
2	FLA	11	0	0.49
3	COL	10	1	0.76
3	FLA	21	0	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.3

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 2 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.2 - 2.1