Buffalo Sabres at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2021-12-14 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 55.9%

BUF: 44.1%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.11

BUF: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	27	23	4	85.2%	2.65	3	-1.35
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	36	34	2	94.4%	4.28	1	2.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WPG at home vs BUF: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-05	WPG 4 - 1 BUF	WPG	BUF
2025-12-01	BUF 5 - 1 WPG	BUF	BUF
2025-03-23	WPG 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	WPG
2024-12-05	BUF 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-03-03	BUF 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	20	0	1.30
1	BUF	11	0	0.41
2	WPG	23	0	1.54
2	BUF	15	2	1.26
3	WPG	16	1	1.44
3	BUF	13	1	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1