Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2021-12-16 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers (SO)

Win Probability

MTL: 52.4%

PHI: 47.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.93

PHI: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 52%

MTL

Cayden Primeau - 8-9-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.99 GAA

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Cayden Primeau	42	40	2	95.2%	3.22	1	1.22
PHI	C. Hart	42	39	3	92.9%	5.46	5	2.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MTL at home vs PHI: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	PHI 4 - 2 MTL	PHI	PHI
2025-12-16	MTL 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-11-04	MTL 4 - 5 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-04-05	MTL 3 - 2 PHI	MTL	PHI
2025-03-27	PHI 6 - 4 MTL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	23	3	2.39
1	PHI	8	0	0.30
2	MTL	20	0	1.43
2	PHI	16	0	1.03
3	MTL	10	1	0.60
3	PHI	16	0	0.87
4	MTL	3	0	0.15
4	PHI	9	1	0.83
5	MTL	3	1	0.88
5	PHI	3	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0